- BetOnline has updated odds on which stars will lead the NFL in passing, rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2019
- Patrick Mahomes (+400), Ezekiel Elliott/Saquon Barkley (+800) and Davante Adams (1100) are the favorites in their categories
- Jared Goff (+3500), Mark Ingram (+5000) and George Kittle (+6500) are exquisite longshot bets
Any seasoned fantasy player worth their weight in FAAB dollars knows that touchdowns are the most fickle of statistics for running backs and pass catchers.
Trips across the goal line vary heavily for players year-to-year, so you want to attach your horse to teams with top-tier quarterbacks and offensive-minded head coaches who push the tempo, rarely run on first down, and don’t settle for field goals.
Our mission is the same when trying to uncover smart bets on who might lead the NFL in passing, rushing and receiving touchdowns. Let’s try to find some winning wagers at Bovada.
Most Regular-Season Passing Touchdowns Odds
|Player (Team)||2019 Most Passing TDs Odds|
|Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)||+400|
|Andrew Luck (Colts)||+500|
|Matt Ryan (Falcons)||+700|
|Aaron Rodgers (Packers)||+900|
|Baker Mayfield (Browns)||+1400|
|Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)||+1800|
|Philip Rivers (Chargers)||+1800|
|Tom Brady (Patriots)||+2000|
|Drew Brees (Saints)||+2000|
|Carson Wentz (Eagles)||+2000|
*All odds taken 07/29/19
In his rookie season, Patrick Mahomes threw 11 more touchdowns than anyone else. Returning from a career-threatening shoulder surgery, Andrew Luck placed second (39) and has more weapons this year. Aaron Rodgers’ 40 TD strikes paced the league in 2016 and Mike McCarthy is finally out of his way.
Drew Brees and Tom Brady sit 2nd and 3rd in all-time TD passes with 520 and 517, respectively. Philip Rivers (374) and Ben Roethlisberger (363) are 6th and 7th on the list, but Big Ben is the only one of the four likely to get enough passing volume to top the league.
Jared Goff posted the highest passer rating outside the pocket in 2018! pic.twitter.com/ga2BXDIFce
— PFF (@PFF) July 24, 2019
As described here, Deshaun Watson (30-1) and Carson Wentz (25-1) are incredible value bets, but don’t sleep on Jared Goff. The 24-year old struggled down the stretch last year, but he still has room for improvement, and more importantly, Sean McVay in his headset.
Best Bet: Jared Goff (+3500)
Most Regular-Season Rushing Touchdowns Odds
|Player (Team)||2019 Most Rushing TDs Odds|
|Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)||+800|
|Saquon Barkley (Giants)||+800|
|Todd Gurley (Rams)||+1200|
|Derrick Henry (Titans)||+1200|
|Nick Chubb (Browns)||+1400|
|Alvin Kamara (Saints)||+1400|
|James Conner (Steelers)||+1800|
|Le’Veon Bell (Jets)||+2000|
|Marlon Mack (Colts)||+2000|
|Christian McCaffrey (Panthers)||+2000|
*All odds taken 07/29/19
The Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott is currently holding out and only punched it in six times in 2018, but the return of center Travis Frederick bodes well. The Cowboys impressive young defense also means Dallas should be playing with the lead often, creating even more rushing opportunities.
Alvin Kamara’s 14 rushing TDs placed him only behind Todd Gurley (17) last season, but he’s likely to share goal-line touches with Saints newcomer Latavius Murray, who has the most carries inside the 10-yard line in the NFL over the past three seasons (53), according to Establish the Run‘s Evan Silva.
After eight seasons with the Saints, Ingram took the field on Thursday for his first training-camp practice with the Baltimore Ravens. https://t.co/Eqw3gqvyxv
— Alabama Crimson Tide | AL.com (@aldotcomTide) July 26, 2019
At 50-1, Kamara’s former backfield running mate is the superior value. Mark Ingram has far less wear-and-tear on the tires than most 29-year-old’s, is in offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s well-schemed, run-heavy attack, and will have tons of open holes with defenses worried about Lamar Jackson’s wheels.
Best Bet: Mark Ingram (+5000)
Most Regular-Season Receiving Touchdowns Odds
|Player (Position, Team)||2019 Most Receiving TDs Odds|
|Davante Adams (WR, Packers)||+1100|
|DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Texans)||+1200|
|Travis Kelce (TE, Chiefs)||+1200|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, Steelers)||+1500|
|Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, Browns)||+1600|
|Antonio Brown (WR, Raiders)||+1600|
|Tyreek Hill (WR, Chiefs)||+1600|
|Julio Jones (WR, Falcons)||+1600|
|Michael Thomas (WR, Saints)||+1600|
|Mike Evans (WR, Buccaneers)||+2000|
*All odds taken 07/29/19
The Pass Catchers
Volume is the name of the game, so it’s no surprise to see Davante Adams (league-leading 31 red-zone targets inside the 20-yard line) and DeAndre Hopkins (league-leading 15 RZ targets inside the 10) as the top names on the board.
Julio Jones was the NFL’s preeminent target monster (170) in 2018, but has a long, storied career of frustrating fantasy owners on the touchdown front. Catching passes from Derek Carr will almost certainly take the air out of the balloon for last season’s top-scoring pass catcher Antonio Brown.
His former Steelers teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster is a screaming positive regression candidate. The still-only 22-year-old caught just 7 TDs in 2018 despite finishing top four in both total targets (166) and RZ looks (16).
George Kittle is putting in WORK. ?
(?: IG/ekittle) pic.twitter.com/qoIT4Sylqo
— theScore (@theScore) July 19, 2019
Mike Evans is a receiver on a Bucs team with a terrible defense (a delicious recipe for compiling stats), but then again so is third-year breakout candidate Chris Godwin, who is available at 65-1. Miraculously, you can get those same odds on George Kittle (aka Gronk 2.0) who at 6-foot-6, 260-pounds should be a target hog for Jimmy G and the Niners.
Best Bet: George Kittle (+6500)